<table class="texreg" style="margin: 10px auto;border-collapse: collapse;border-spacing: 0px;caption-side: bottom;color: #000000;border-top: 2px solid #000000;">
<caption>Statistical models</caption>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Model 1</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Model 2</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Model 3</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Model 4</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr style="border-top: 1px solid #000000;">
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Mobilization for democracy</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.96<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.91<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.25<sup>**</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.31<sup>***</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.12)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.08)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.09)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.05)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Mobilization for Autocracy</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-2.23<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-2.12<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.27<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.38<sup>***</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.06)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.12)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.07)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.08)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">GDP per capita (log)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.11</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.84<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.15<sup>*</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.13)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.24)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.07)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.54)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">GDP growth rate</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.04</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.02</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.04)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.02)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Gas and oil production (log)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.05<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.04<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Population (log)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.33<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.47</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.66</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.05)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.25)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.12)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(1.16)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Avg. years of education</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.64<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.39<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.06</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.08)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.09)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.04)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.22)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Ethnic fractionalization</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.86<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-8.28<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-1.57<sup>**</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">1.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.23)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(1.25)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.50)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(3.50)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Intrastate conflict</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.22</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.02</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.12</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.19)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.18)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.09)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.09)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Ruling party dimension</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-7.36<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-5.90<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.21</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-1.04<sup>*</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.36)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.52)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.25)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.43)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Military dimension</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-6.78<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-6.66<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.34</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.38)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.37)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.19)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.21)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Hereditary dimension</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-13.37<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.58</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.45</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">2.54<sup>**</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.63)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(1.62)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(1.30)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.88)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Democracy (lag)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.87<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border-top: 1px solid #000000;">
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">R<sup>2</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.63</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.82</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.95</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Adj. R<sup>2</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.62</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.82</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.95</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Sigma</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">4.53</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">3.18</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">1.62</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">nobs</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">7166</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">7166</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">7150</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">AIC</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">42013.78</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">37128.50</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">27394.87</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">BIC</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">42103.18</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">38648.34</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">28914.22</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Log Likelihood</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-20993.89</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-18343.25</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-13476.44</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">within.r.squared</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.33</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.83</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border-bottom: 2px solid #000000;">
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Num. obs.</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">7025</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td style="font-size: 0.8em;" colspan="5"><sup>***</sup>p &lt; 0.001; <sup>**</sup>p &lt; 0.01; <sup>*</sup>p &lt; 0.05</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
